Finance Minister Ernie Eves will table his fifth budget at 4pm in the legislature in Toronto on Tuesday, May 2nd. In anticipation of this historic event - a surplus budget - we offer you this primer of what to expect and what to hope for in next Tuesday's budget.

What to expect - Not only will the budget be balanced, Minister Eves will announce a modest surplus. A figure in and around the $500 million range or more given better than expected personal and corporate tax revenues due to a booming economy would not be surprising. Indeed, Ontario is expected to post 5% real GDP growth in calendar year 2000.

With this surplus, and even with some regular tax revenues, look for Mr. Eves to make a symbolic first payment of principal of Ontario's $121 billion debt. And if Mr. Eves is really on his game, look for the provincial government to up their debt reduction targets from $500 million per year to a least $1 billion.

On the tax cuts front, personal income tax reductions will continue. The provincial government promised a further 20% tax cut (on top of the 30% cut during its first mandate) during the 1999 election and this round of cuts is already in progress. The only question that remains is will the Minister accelerate and/or expand this schedule

Less noticeable but equally, if not more important, will be an anticipated provincial move to re-index the Ontario tax system to inflation if earlier moves by Alberta, Ottawa and other provinces are to be viewed as previews. While Ottawa took most of the heat for "bracket creep"-the result of de-indexation - Ontario also made off like bandits.

Since 1986, Ontarians paid an extra $12 billion in silent, hidden and increasing taxes due to provincial bracket creep. In 1999 alone, Queen's Park netted an extra $1.25 billion in personal income taxes, thanks to bracket creep. While Paul Martin's move to re-index the federal tax system has negated much of these future tax increases, Minister Eves must tidy up the loose ends by also indexing Ontario-specific tax credits and thresholds to inflation.

On the spending side look for priority program areas to check in with record budget allotments. Spending and health care will probably account for 52% to 54% of all provincial expenditures. While this is reflective of need, the absence of any true long-term plan for health care reform like medical savings accounts or co-insurance options is troubling. This problem is compounded with short-term challenges of delays in implementing primary care reform or upgrading medical technology on a system-wide basis.

Finally, taxpayers should expect much fanfare and new dollars devoted to public safety issues for everything from more cops on the beat to boot camps and new jail construction.

What to hope for - On the tax front some welcome surprises would include a concrete timetable for provincial delinking from the federal tax on a tax system. Adoption of the Alberta's single rate of taxation would also be nice but probably a bit too ambitious for the government at this point in time.

Apart from income taxes, any moves to lower sales taxes would indeed by a welcome surprise. The political capital that would accrue to the Tories if the PST was lowered to 7% (equal to the GST) or 6% (lower than the GST) would be immense.

And finally, lowering the provincial fuel tax, currently at 14.7 cents per litre, is long overdue and would also be cheered by taxpayers and motorists alike.

Such a measure would go a long way to make up for the Premier's offensive statements earlier this year on gouging at the pumps and his countenance of the recently concluded wasteful and useless MPP gas price review probe.